2 FAM 090
POLICY risk and opportunity planning (prop) Group
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
(Office of Origin: S/P)
2 FAM 091 SCOPE
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
Created in 2022, the Policy Risk and Opportunity Planning (PROP) Group is charged with identifying and proactively planning for scenarios over a 6–18 month time frame that directly implicate vital U.S. interests and major foreign policy strategies and priorities. For additional background please see 22 STATE 102000. The PROP process focuses on strategic-level policy questions and is complementary to State’s existing crisis management, risk management, operational, and threat planning structures.
2 FAM 092 APPLICABILITY
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
PROP focuses on scenarios over a 6-18 month time frame that have medium-to-high impact on U.S. national security and foreign policy priorities and for which existing planning at State or in the interagency is nonexistent or insufficient.
2 FAM 093 STRUCTURE
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
a. The S/P Director convenes and chairs the PROP Group, whose standing members include: the Deputy Secretary (D), Deputy Secretary for Management and Resources (D-MR), Under Secretary for Political Affairs (P), Under Secretary for Management (M), Counselor (C), Executive Secretary, the Secretary’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, Deputy to the U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN (USUN/W), Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and Research (INR), and Assistant Secretary for Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO). The PROP Group is charged with strategic foresight and proactive policy planning.
b. S/P conducts strategic foresight by soliciting analytic inputs from State regional and functional bureaus, the intelligence community, National Security Council Staff, other U.S. Government agencies, select foreign government policy planning counterparts, and outside experts.
c. As directed by the PROP Group, S/P convenes intra-departmental planning groups to develop policy frameworks for select scenarios, which are reviewed and approved by the PROP Group.
2 FAM 094 operating procedures
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
a. The Secretary's Policy Planning Staff (S/P) prepares a Watch List of high-impact scenarios, building on analytic inputs from the intelligence community, State bureaus, and others, which is presented to the PROP Group semi-annually. The Watch List may contain up to 20 priority scenarios, selected based on three criteria: (1) the impact the scenario would have on U.S. national security and foreign policy priorities; (2) the challenge it would pose to our key strategies and policies; and (3) how likely the scenario is to occur in the next 6-18 months. While the Watch List contains some high-impact scenarios for which USG planning is already robust, PROP focuses on scenarios for which current planning is deemed nonexistent or insufficient.
b. The S/P Director convenes the Group twice per year to review the Watch List, discuss key policy implications, and direct intra-Departmental policy development and planning.
c. The PROP Group directs S/P, in partnership with relevant State bureaus and others, to develop policy frameworks for those scenarios it determines would benefit from further planning.
d. These frameworks are informed by engagements with select outside experts and/or members of the intelligence community and are generated via a series of structured discussions at various levels within State.
e. S/P and any relevant co-drafting bureau(s) presents the draft policy framework to the PROP Group in an ad hoc meeting for final review. Once the policy framework is finalized, is it shared with the Secretary, senior National Security Council staff, relevant State bureaus, interagency partners, and select Allies and partners as appropriate.
2 FAM 095 ROLE OF POLICY PLANNING STAFF (S/P)
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
a. The Secretary's Policy Planning Staff (S/P) is responsible for all aspects of PROP, including collecting analytic inputs from a wide range of open and classified sources, developing the Watch List, preparing short scenario papers to brief to the PROP Group, convening and preparing briefing books for PROP Group meetings, leading working groups to develop policy frameworks, presenting policy frameworks to the PROP Group, and finalizing and transmitting completed work to the Secretary and others.
b. S/P relies on the support of a distributed network of other offices, bureaus, and agencies for analytic inputs to PROP, especially but not limited to INR, CSO, and the National Intelligence Council. S/P relies on cooperation with State regional and functional bureaus to develop the scenarios and convene policy development working groups in support of the Department’s collective foreign policy priorities. S/P regularly draws on the expertise of other specialized bodies within State, including the Office of the Chief Economist, the Office of the Historian, and others, to inform and improve PROP products. Regular and engaged participation by and leadership from the PROP Group standing members of D, D-MR, P, M, C, ExecSec, DCOS/P, USUN/W, INR, and CSO is essential to PROP being able to deliver on its mandate.
2 FAM 096 QUESTIONS
(CT:GEN-608; 05-31-2024)
Direct questions regarding any aspect of PROP to the S/P PROP email box at SP_PROP@state.gov.